The Japanese yen fell to around 148 per dollar on Thursday, as investors reacted to disappointing trade figures that fueled concerns about a potential technical recession.
Japan's trade surplus narrowed to JPY 153.1 billion in June 2025, from JPY 221.3 billion a year earlier and well below market expectations of a JPY 353.9 billion surplus. Exports fell 0.5% yoy to JPY 9,162.6 billion—marking a second straight monthly decline and missing forecasts of a 0.5% gain.
The drop was driven by continued pressure from the US tariff campaign, raising fears that Japan's economy may contract again in Q2 and potentially pushing it into a technical recession.
Conversely, imports rose 0.2% to JPY 9,009.5 billion—the first increase in three months and better than expectations of a 1.6% decline. Meanwhile, investors are eyeing potential fiscal stimulus ahead of the July 20 Upper House election, amid speculation over more government spending and a possible consumption tax cut to boost economic growth.
Source: Trading Economics
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